Fairly Deep in 10+R

Quick post here. I played the big $10+r on stars tonight and went pretty deep to get 15th/1527 for about $500. I had the chip lead for a while when there were between 100 and 40 people left but I went pretty card dead and became a semi-shortstack. I finally got all my chips in when the SB (who had jammed when everyone folded to our blinds about a bagillion times already and I had 6-high each time) once again jammed for 650K with the blinds at 20k/40k. I had KQo, looked him up for my entire 560K stack, and lost to his 67s. This was a bit disappointing to finally pick this guy off and still lose (I knew what he was doing the whole time, I just never had a hand to take a stand with). This pot also would have had me in 3rd place by a small margin with 15 left. Weak.

Other than this 10+R and the 20+R on stars that I ran today and didn't do anything in, I really haven't been playing too much. School should be keeping me pretty busy this quarter, but I'll update when I do get a chance to play (hopefully weekends or something).

Another thing. I folded top pair 2nd kicker to a flop bet during the 10+R tourney in what was probably the key pot for me. With blinds of 3k/6k, I make it 18K in MP with AQo (I start the hand with about 250K). A fairly active player (has about 220K to start the hand) makes it 48K from the SB, I call. I started this hand with the chip lead and he was in 3rd place BTW, which definitely affects the dynamic of the hand. The flop comes AJx rainbow, he jams for 166K. I go into the tank and eventually fold, he shows AKo. I almost never fold in this spot, but I had a really bad feeling and I was right. Good for me. Dangit, I just remembered how well I played tonight and that I still didn't get a huge score. Why can't I get just the few more breaks that I need to win one of these fucking things?

Oh, and I played against TJ Cloutier in this tourney. He was hovering at around 10BBs when we were down to 4 tables or so and he was in "move in or fold" mode the whole time. I also stole his blinds with 93s. Sweet.

A Strange Spot with AQs

I sat down at a shorthanded $1/$2 ame today and found myself in the following strange spot on my first hand. A totally random player made it $47 (23.5BBs!!!) from the CO and I found myself in the BB with AQs.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed)
SB ($342.20)
Hero ($200.00)
UTG ($80.00)
MP ($195.20)
Button ($150.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ah, Qh.
1 fold, MP bets $47, 2 folds


This is a weird spot and I wasn't really sure what to do. After the fact, I asked a couple of people I know about this and even posted this scenario on 2+2, and everyone seems to think it's an obvious fold. It's not so obvious to me, so let's do some analysis. Remember, I know nothing about the villian in this hand.

Let me start by saying that I'm well aware of thet fact that I'm probably behind the raiser's range. But that doesn't necessarily mean this is a fold because we probably have at least some fold equity. I haven't actually run the numbers, but I think that it will at least be a close decision (not the totally obvious fold that everyone else seems to think it is).

Now let's assign him several canonical raising/calling (calling if I jam, that is) ranges and see how AQs does.

1) "Medium range" -- Raise {99+, AQ+, AJs+}, Call {QQ+, AK, AKs}

We now need to count the number of ways he can have each hand in his range:
- there are 6 ways for him to have 99, TT, JJ, KK.
- there are 3 ways for him to have QQ, AA.
- there are 3 ways for him to have AJs, AQs, AKs.
- there are 9 ways for him to have AQo.
- there are 12 ways for him to have AKo.

This means that there are 60 hands in his raising range and 27 hands in his calling range. Against his calling range, here's how AQs does.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.6074 % 27.30% 01.31% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 71.3926 % 70.09% 01.31% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Then 55% of the time, he fold and we win $50. The other 45% of the time, he calls. Of these times, we win $198.20 28.6% of the time. We also lose $193.20 72.4% of the time.

So out equity is (33/60)($50) + (27/60)(0.286)($198.20) - (27/60)(0.724)($193.20) = 27.50 + 25.50 - 62.94 = -$9.94

2) "Loose range" -- Raise {22+, AT+, A8s+}, Call {99+, AQ+, AJs+}

There are 135 hands in this range, while there are 60 in his calling range. Here's how we do against the calling range:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.7085 % 32.50% 08.21% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 59.2915 % 51.08% 08.21% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }

So our equity is then (75/135)($50) + (60/135)(0.407)($198.20) - (60/135)(0.593)($193.20) = 27.78 + 35.85 - 50.92 = $12.71

3) "Tight range" -- Raise {JJ+, AK, AKs}, Call {KK+}

There are 33 hands in this raising range and only 9 in the calling range. Here's how we do against {KK+}:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.4101 % 25.06% 00.35% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 74.5899 % 74.24% 00.35% { KK+ }

So our equity against this range is (24/33)(50) + (9/33)(0.254)(198.2) - (9/33)(0.746)(193.2) = 36.36 + 13.72 - 39.31 = $10.77


So we can see that the only "canonical" range we shouldn't jam against is the meduim range.

But I don't think any of these ranges will apply in this situation because the raise is so large. Given this, I think we can safely remove AA and KK (and maybe even AK) from the villian's range because these hands are sort of universally thought of as being big hands that you need to get action with. And it's tough for them to get action by raising it to 23 BBs. In fact, the range I gave the raiser is {TT-QQ, AJs+, AQo+}. I also was pretty sure I'd only get a call from the strongest parts of his range, which is {JJ, QQ, AKs}. Let's see how things look against this more realistic range.

There are 45 hands in his range and he calls with 12 of them. Here's how we look against his calling range:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.6917 % 37.90% 00.79% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 61.3083 % 60.52% 00.79% { QQ-JJ, AKs }

Our equity here is (33/45)(50) + (12/45)(.387)(198.2) - (12/45)(.613)(193.2) = 36.67 + 20.45 -31.58 = $25.54

Note that most of this comes from the fact that he's folding a lot of hands. If we don't have fold equity, we shouldn't move in. For example, if he calls with AKo this becomes -EV by about $10. Of course, all of this depends on his actual raising and calling ranges.

I think it's safe to conclude that it's not really a clear fold. Folding is certainly a safer play, and jamming here is going to be highly variant. But I don't like passing up on a perceived edge, no matter how much variance it brings (another good reason to play with a very large bankroll for your game). Given the tendencies of all players out there and the analysis I've just given, I would venture to say that this play is probably around EV neutral, tending towards having positive expectation.

And I like gambling. So I jammed and the villian folded. What did he have? I have no idea, but it really couldn't have been AA or KK. Obviously he doesn't need to have a big hand here as some people have been telling me. In fact, I think it's extremely unlikely for him to have a big hand.

One freind I asked even said he would fold AKs here. AKs! Needless to say, I woulda jammed {AKs, AKo, QQ+} here as well. I also think that it's probably marginally correct to jam with AQs and JJ here as well, as long as you have the bankroll to handle some swings.

You might be saying to yourself right now "if this play is based entirely on fold equity, why not jam with any two cards??" Why not indeed! If I knew the player and was sure he would be folding hands like AKo, I would definitely move in with any two here (this is not a play you could make very often of course). AQs is good enough in case you run into a player who will call you with medium pairs and big aces, since you need to have some outs against these loose ranges. The point is, this is never *that* bad of a play against any range with AQs.

I had a good time thinking about this hand today, and I really think that the classic way of thinking (i.e., needing a REALLY big hand to take action here) misses out on some profit in this spot.

Sports Betting, LA, and Vegas

At the end of my last post, I said that I had to figure out whether I was going to make a sports bet. I ended up making this bet, which was basically a freeroll $1100 bet on the Steelers/Dolphins game last Thursday, which paid out at 11:10 (so I would win $1000 if my bet won). I had a pick'em on Pittsburgh, and I gave my brother some money to put down the same bet (he would get 40% of the winnings). The Steelers won, and I pocketed $1600 from the win. I was watching the game with my brother and my 2p2 friend. Altogether, we had $3000 on the line and it made an otherwise mundane event really interesting.

The game was on Thursday night, and I went up to LA on friday for a freind's wedding. My wife was sick so she didn't go, and most of the people I knew were actually in the wedding. I was bored while everyone was at the rehearsal dinner, so I decided to clear the $1100 (100% on first deposit) bonus at the casino where I won the Steelers bet. Clearing this bonus required that I play $22,000 worth of casino games. Somebody out there figured out that you could play $22,000 worth of keno in such a way that your expected loss would only be about $580 (I verified this calculation also). So I sat there all day and played Keno, resulting in a loss of about $400. Clearing the $1100 bonus, this made me another $700. Sweet.

So I made $2300 on random gambling ventures last week, which was fun. I also went to Las Vegas after the wedding to visit my parents for a few days. I didn't play a whole lot of poker, but I did play some. On Monday I played a $1/$2 NL game online for about an hour and won $50 or so. On Tuesday I went to some casino and played in the morning tournament. It was a $37 buyin, and I got knocked out pretty early when I got my 2400 preflop at the 200/400/25 level with 33 vs. AQo vs. AJs, where the AJs ended with a full house to knock out both of us. My brother ended up getting 5th when only 4 places paid. I don't really know much abouut how he was playing or how he went out -- I was busy playing in a cash game after I got knocked out of the tourney.

The only game running when I got knocked out was a $2/$4 limit holdem game. I jumped in and won about $50 before a $1/$2 NL game got started. This game (well, both actually) was *soft*. My dad was playing with me. And despite the fact that he plays pretty poorly, he probably had an advantage on the players in this game. Let's go over some fun hands.


UTG limps for $2, I fold the CO, dad limps the button, SB folds, BB makes it $7, UTG calls, my dad makes it $12 (min-raise), all call. Flop comes J44, BB checks, CO checks, dad bets $15. BB folds, UTG calls. Turn comes J, putting 2 pair on board. UTG leads for $50, dad makes it $100 (another min-raise), UTG calls. River comes an A, UTG checks, dad moves in for about $120, UTG calls with KJ and loses to dad's AJ.

dad limps UTG, UTG+1 (who I beleive to be tilting due to losing a few pots in a row) makes it $22 with about $75 behind, 3 callers, I make it $120 from the BB with 99, UTG+1 calls, all others fold. Nobody gets help, he has 77, I win a bunch.

I make it $8 UTG with 9s9c. I get 5 or 6 callers including both blinds. Flop comes 568 two spades, SB bets $15, BB folds, I make it $45, all fold, SB says "I'll see one more" and calls. Turn comes 2h, SB checks, I make it $65, he think for a while and shows the 2d. I really can't imagine what hands he could have had other than 23 or 27. Pretty strange of him to show the 2d -- it really weirded me out.

A bunch of people limp, I limp the button with 46o, both blinds complete(dad is SB). Flop comes 577 rainbow, all check to me, I bet $10. My dad makes a big production of calling, so it's pretty clear that he has the 7, 2 other callers. Turn comes an offsuit 6, dad checks, next guy makes it $25, some old lady calls, I fold, dad makes it $50, the guy looks agonized and finally folds what he later claims was a straight (I beleive him), lady calls $25 more. River comes a Q, dad bets $50 into a pot of about $200, lady (who has about $100 left) calls with A7, dad shows Q7o for the rivered boat. I've said this once before, but I really think that I'm the only one who shouldn't be kicked in the groin for how badly they played this pot.

I ended up ahead by about $220, and so did my brother and dad. I think I'm going to start playing $1/$2 NL when I go to the live casino games.



I also played a few hundred hands of $1/$2 this morning and won about $400. Let me start by sayinng that I started playing on the pokerroom network again when I played in Vegas because I decided that I wanted 42% rakeback again. The games also appear to be MUCH weaker than the $1/$2 games on Stars. Let's look at some hands.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)
UTG+1 ($265.05)
MP1 ($103.00)
MP2 ($197.80)
MP3 (UltraDonkey) ($233.80)
CO ($138.20)
Button (Solid Player) ($185.20)
SB ($145.00)
Hero ($252.60)
UTG ($378.20)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Qd, 8d.
4 folds, MP3 (UltraDonkey) calls $2, 1 fold, Button (Solid Player) calls $2, 1 fold, Hero checks.
Flop: ($9) 7s, Qc, 2h (3 players)
Hero bets $5, UltraDonkey raises to $10, Solid Player calls $10, Hero calls $5.
Turn: ($39) 8c (3 players)
Hero checks, UltraDonkey bets $14, Solid Player calls $14, Hero raises to $54, UltraDonkey calls $40, Solid Player raises to $94, Hero calls $40, UltraDonkey calls $40.
River: ($321) 4c (3 players)
Hero checks, UltraDonkey bets $127.8 (All-In), Solid Player calls $79.20 (All-In), Hero folds.
Final Pot: $528
Results below:
UltraDonkey has Ah Qh (one pair, queens).
Solid Player has 2c 2d (three of a kind, twos).
Outcome: Solid Player wins $479.40. UltraDonkey wins $48.60.

I folded the river getting about 4:1 with top two pair. I wasn't really worried about the random straight/flush possibilities, but when the solid guy insta-called the donkey on the river, I was pretty sure I was beat by a flopped set. I was fairly sure of this on the turn too, so I really should have folded there instead and saved myself $40.

Now, two fun ones. These were two consecutive hands, each where I had a flush draw, overcards and a gutshot and hit the gutshot in both. Note the guy slowplaying the set in the 2nd hand -- god I love these games.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)
UTG ($265.00)
UTG+1 ($120.40)
MP1 ($149.50)
MP2 ($79.50)
MP3 ($113.00)
CO ($297.50)
Button ($195.00)
Hero ($201.40)
BB ($80.50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Th, Jh.
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, MP3 raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $5, BB calls $4, UTG calls $4.
Flop: ($24) 4s, 9h, 7h (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $10, UTG folds, MP3 raises to $30, Hero raises to $110, BB calls $64.50 (All-In), MP3 folds.
Turn: ($238.50) 2c (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($238.50) 8d (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: $238.50
Results below:
BB doesn't show. (has Ah8h)
Hero has Th Jh (straight, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins $238.50.


PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)
MP3 ($200.00)
CO ($62.30)
Button ($117.40)
SB ($147.50)
BB ($81.70)
UTG ($82.20)
UTG+1 ($195.00)
Hero ($320.90)
MP2 ($149.00)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Kh, Ah.
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, MP3 calls $6, 4 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds.
Flop: ($23) 2h, Th, Jc (2 players)
Hero bets $20, MP3 calls $20.
Turn: ($63) 6c (2 players)
Hero bets $30, MP3 raises to $75, Hero calls $45.
River: ($213) Qd (2 players)
Hero bets $217.9 (All-In), MP3 calls $97 (All-In).
Final Pot: $527.90
Results below:
Hero has Kh Ah (straight, ace high).
MP3 has Tc Ts (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins $527.90.


I also have the home game tonight and I will hopefully be going to the casino either Friday or Saturday to get some live action. Ok, let's end this with a bankroll update. Thank you, Steelers!


Total BR - $10081.24 (Online) + $728 (Live) = $10,809.24

The Biggest Called Overbet I've Ever Seen

I haven't been playing a whole lot over the last week due to being busy with other random non-poker crap. But I have played a little. On friday night I went to a local casino and played some $2/$3 NL. I won about $20, the friend I was with won about $670 in the same game due to cold-decking a couple other people (AQ vs. AK on an AxxxQ board and 87 vs. Ac9c on a 2c4c8d7d8c board). I wasn't running very well. I got 88/99/TT about a zillion times and won with them about once. I did play a pretty interesting hand, however.

I have about $220 to start the hand. UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, a new player (his 2nd hand) makes it $15 in MP, guy to my right calls, I call on the button with AhQh, BB calls, limpers call. The flop comes As2c4c, all check to the guy on my immediate right who bets $25 (pot was about $75). I don't like raising here, but folding or calling are both MUCH worse. I min-raise to $50 to try to thin the field. UTG+1 cold-calls $50, bettor calls $25. The turn comes an offsuit 8, both players check, I bet $65, cold-caller now folds (wtf?), bettor moves me in for $90 more. I put my head on the table and curse my crappy play. I decide I'm pot stuck and call, he shows AJo and I win. After the hand, here's the dialogue between me and the guy I was with.

Friend: "That was a tough one. Good call."
Me: "Just because I had him beat there doesn't make it a good call."
Friend: "I'll be results oriented and say it was a good call anyway."
Me: "I'll be results oriented and say that was a good limp with up front with the 87o earlier." (see the 87o vs. A9c hand above)


I also played some online poker today and had some fun hands in the cash games. At first I donated a bunch of money to the same donkey in 3 hands by getting him in when I was either slightly or way ahead and having him suck out. Here are those hands:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)
UTG ($198)
UTG+1 (Donkey) ($26)
MP1 ($132.25)
MP2 ($334.55)
MP3 ($79.10)
CO ($76)
Button ($460.45)
SB ($310.95)
Hero ($196)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Td, As.
1 fold, UTG+1 (Donkey) raises to $6, 6 folds, Hero raises to $30, UTG+1 (Donkey) calls $20 (All-In).
Flop: ($57) 2h, 6c, 9h (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($57) Ks (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($57) 8d (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: $57
Results below:
Hero has Td As (high card, ace).
Donkey has Jh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Donkey wins $53. Hero wins $4.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed)
UTG+1 (Donkey) ($122.40)
MP1 ($225.30)
MP2 ($96.25)
CO ($200)
Button ($147)
SB ($722.30)
BB ($200)
Hero ($201)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ah, Qs.
Hero raises to $8, UTG+1 (Donkey) calls $8, 6 folds.
Flop: ($19) Ad, Kh, 6d (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Donkey raises to $28, Hero raises to $130, Donkey calls $86.40 (All-In).
Turn: ($263.40) 8s (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($263.40) 8c (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: $263.40
Results below:
Hero has Ah Qs (two pair, aces and eights).
Donkey has Th Ac (two pair, aces and eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $139.50. Donkey wins $123.90.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)
CO ($188.50)
Button (Donkey) ($66.95)
SB ($250)
BB ($101.40)
UTG ($209.10)
UTG+1 ($75.80)
MP1 ($763.55
MP2 ($205)
Hero ($203.05)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Jc, Js.
4 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, Button (Donkey) calls $8, 2 folds.
Flop: ($19) 8c, 2s, 6h (2 players)
Hero checks, Donkey bets $10, Hero raises to $74, Donkey calls $48.95 (All-In).
Turn: ($151.95) 6c (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($151.95) Kh (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: $151.95
Results below:
Hero has Jc Js (two pair, jacks and sixes).
Donkey has 6s 5s (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: Donkey wins $136.90. Hero wins $15.05.

Donkey got stacked pretty quickly, giving all my money to other people. And at the other table I was playing, there was somebody who was almost as bad. First I lost a decent pot to him in spectacular fashion, where he checks and calls pot size bets on the flop and turn with AJo on a 3574 board only to river his gutshot and not bet it. Wow. I knew I was going to get this guy good if I could pick up an actual hand (forshadowing).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)
UTG+1 ($168.35)
MP1 ($146.80)
MP2 ($102.75)
MP3 ($51)
CO (Donkey2) ($96.75)
Hero ($231.80)
SB ($78)
BB ($141.60)
UTG ($93.85)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7d, 8c.
5 folds, CO (Donkey2) raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 2 folds.
Flop: ($11) 7h, 3d, 5c (2 players)
Donkey2 checks, Hero bets $8, Donkey2 calls $8.
Turn: ($27) 4h (2 players)
Donkey2 checks, Hero bets $24, Donkey2 calls $24.
River: ($75) 2c (2 players)
Donkey2 checks, Hero checks.
Final Pot: $75
Results below:
Donkey2 has Ad Jh (straight, five high).
Hero has 7d 8c (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Donkey2 wins $75.

After this the game got short-handed, then I finally got heads up with Donkey2. Here is the first hand of heads up play -- this guy calls a 64x pot bet on the river when I have the nuts. Awesome -- this pot got me almost even for the night in cash games.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (2 handed)
Button (Donkey2) ($257.35)
Hero ($318.40)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 4h, 7c. Button (Donkey2) posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $1, Button (Donkey2) (poster) checks.
Flop: ($4) Td, 3d, 5c (2 players)
Hero checks, Donkey2 checks.
Turn: ($4) 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, Donkey2 checks.
River: ($4) 6h (2 players)
Hero bets $316.4 (All-In), Donkey2 calls $255.35 (All-In).
Final Pot: $575.75
Results below:
Donkey2 has 3c 3s (three of a kind, threes).
Hero has 4h 7c (straight, seven high).
Outcome: Hero wins $575.75.


I also played a $20+2 NL tourney on Stars and got 16th/654 for like $140. Not too much interesting here. I got a bunch of chips in standard fashion, ran AA into KK for a nice pot, beat 99 with 55 (AI preflop) by flopping quads, knocked out some short stacks, etc. I was fairly short when we got down to 2 tables, and I decided to try a squeeze play with 66 and ran into 99 and AA and I didn't suckout. Oh well.

I also saw a very funny hand when we were down to 3 tables in this tourney. We were 8 handed with blinds of 1500/3000/a150. I fold UTG, UTG+1 makes it 24000 leaving himself with about 2300 (yes, two thousand three hundred). All fold to the BB, who insta-calls for about 2/3 of his chips. Flop comes 2s8dTd, BB bets, UTG+1 calls with KK. BB has 9d6d, the river is some diamond and KK is gone. Yikes.


It's getting to be close to my bedtime so I better wrap this up. I have a bunch of work to do this week, but hopefully I'll be playing poker when I'm not working. I also need to figure out if I'm going to make a "free" sports bet before I go to bed.